By Chris Marinac | Feb. 15, 2017
Slower C&I Loans In Fed’s H8 Data vs. Actual FDIC Loan Growth
The FIG Partners Research team studied quarterly loan FDIC call report data since 2011 for all U.S. bank charters alongside the weekly Fed H8 data. We discovered a routine difference between actual growth in both C&I loans and total loans and the Fed’s estimates. The Fed’s H8 data tends to overshoot the actual growth reported by the FDIC’s individual bank charters.
Investors should notice a definite slowdown in the pace of C&I loan expansion within the U.S. banking industry. Year-over-year C&I growth has slowed to 6.4% from a 9.6% pace in October 2016 and +11% in May 2016. The weekly Fed H8 data shows growth as low as +5% in recent weeks. But, our analysis suggests that actual C&I activity is often different from the quarterly FDIC filings.
Since 2013, the Fed’s H8 estimates have exceeded actual loans. Investors should recognize that the Fed H8 report is just an estimate and the underlying trends may show even less C&I expansion within the U.S. banking industry.
At a minimum, a seasonally slow 1Q17 seems quite possible.
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